The Bet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 26 (10 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 17
Defender wins (Norwegian): 9
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1038 | 977 | 59% | 2026-04-01 | Won |
| 1134 | 1113 | 53% | 2021-04-15 | Won |
| 931 | 1217 | 16% | 2020-01-12 | Lost |
| 993 | 968 | 54% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1129 | 890 | 80% | 2015-06-21 | Won |
| 906 | 1129 | 22% | 2015-05-16 | Lost |
| 962 | 1077 | 34% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 980 | 1038 | 42% | 2014-02-24 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1003 | 53% | 2014-02-08 | Won |
| 968 | 844 | 67% | 2013-12-06 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1006.4 vs 1025.6 has a 47.24% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).